July 02, 2009

Montana State Government Revenues Down

As reported here in today's Helena IR, state government revenue collections aren't quite what the Legislature had hoped for back in April.

At this point, it's impossible to know exactly where the state is financially because the fiscal year just ended on June 30. There will be money that comes in that is 2009 money, not the current fiscal year of 2010. Still, there are signs that collections won't be as high as expected. We may be dipping into that $300 million budget ending-fund balance sooner than many thought.

The shortfall can be attributed to lower collections in personal income taxes, sin taxes, natural resource and oil taxes. Many of the graphs looked okay this time last year, but collections have been way down in the past six months. The state revenue analyst said this made him worry about fiscal year 2010 and 2011.

We can take comfort that Montana isn't seeing the budget woes of states like California. Generally, Montana lags behind the rest of the country when going into a recession and often lags coming out as well. Let's hope Montana leads the country out of this one.

June 30, 2009

China Trip Next March

Two years ago, I went to China on vacation and to visit a brother-in-law. My 10 day trip was such an eye opener to a part of the world that is changing so rapidly. You can read some of my observations here and here.

China has largely abandoned many of the economic aspects of communism and embraced forms of capitalism. They still have a long ways to go when it comes to political dissent and human rights. Nationalism is becoming the new ideology and is heavily aided by the government-controlled media.

This is all just a lead-in to an opportunity we are planning for Montanans interested in seeing this other part of the world. Here is the press release we sent out for our trip to China in March of 2010. Note that the price is very reasonable and includes just about everything:

The Montana Chamber of Commerce announces a business mission to China in March of 2010. The nine-day, four-city tour will incorporate tourism and sight-seeing with business connections. "This is a fantastic opportunity for Montanans to get a perspective of China,” said Webb Brown, Montana Chamber President/CEO. “We know that China is already an important trading partner, and will be even more so in the future.”

The tour starts March 4, 2010 with an afternoon flight from Seattle. Crossing the International Dateline, Beijing is the initial stop. Participants will also visit Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, before returning to Beijing and home on March 12.

The cost for the nine-day tour, including flight, all hotels, three meals per day, in-China transportation, business meetings, tour guide/admissions, and airport taxes is only $1,899 per person, based on double occupancy. Single rooms and upgrades to business class are available for an additional charge.

Reservations will be accepted on a first-come, first-served basis, with a non-refundable registration fee of $200 per person. The balance of the fee will be due by January 1, 2010. A passport and visa are required. The Montana Chamber can handle the visa application.

An invaluable pre-tour orientation for all participants and potential participants (depending on room) will be held June 24 from 5:30 to 7 p.m. at the Best Western Helena Great Northern Hotel. Additional orientation in other cities will be announced soon. Interested parties in Kalispell are encouraged to contact the Kalispell Area Chamber of Commerce for a similar offering.

The tour is arranged through Citslinc, a Montana Chamber member with 28 years of experience in the China tour business.

For more information, contact Leah at the Montana Chamber of Commerce:
888-442-MONT (6668) ext. 102
leah@montanachamber.com
www.montanachamber.com

June 25, 2009

Workers Unionize then Business Eventually Closes

Is this the best example the unions could come up with for a successful unionizing effort? I realize she is trying to make the case for the EFCA, but talking about a unionizing campaign should probably have a happy ending if you're also claiming that more unions would be better for the economy. This business eventually closed! There are no reasons given why her former employer went out of business, but it leaves me wondering. Some workers at this pharmacy who may have felt good about the union effort  eventually found themselves without a job altogether.

This other story is a great exam of how EFCA would have negative consequences on employers and employees. David Brown had a chance to give the business/employer side of the story during the campaign. If card check would have been in place, workers may have only heard one side of the story before making decisions about unionizing.

June 24, 2009

Montana Chamber Releases 2009 Scorecard for Legislators and Governor

Today the Montana Chamber of Commerce released its 2009 Voting Review of the 61st Legislative Session. The review is the most comprehensive look at the business and economic issues addressed during the 90-day session. Over 100 bills are included in the scorecard, which received national recognition for its scoring methodology after the 2007 session.

“The Montana Chamber Voter Review is a great resource for the businesses and voters in Montana,” said Montana Chamber President/CEO Webb Brown, “it gives the most accurate look at who is pro-business and who is not. We have pioneered a new way to look at legislative work, and many states are following suit.”

The Montana Chamber looked not just at floor votes, but also committee votes and bill sponsorship. This holistic approach has given the most comprehensive look at business issues ranging from work comp to health care to taxes. Legislators were notified of the Montana Chamber position before key votes. The Business Scores for legislators ranged all the way from 0% to 100%.

The Governor was judged on his signing or vetoing of bills, committee action, and bills that originated from his departments and agencies. The Governor’s Business Score was 31%.

“By considering factors beyond floor votes and bill signings, we have been able to more accurately score an individual lawmaker’s philosophy on business, government regulation, and job creation,” said Brown.

To view the Montana Chamber Voting Review, please click here.

June 22, 2009

Card Check and Montana's Federal Delegation

Chuck Johnson has a good article in today's Lee newspapers regarding card check. He does his best to pin our federal delegation down on this hot button issue. So far only Denny Rehberg has given a clear answer, and that answer is a good one for Montana's small businesses.

Senators Baucus and Tester still aren't too sure about the bill. In the past, the two co-sponsored this bill. Now, since it looks like it actually has legs, many former supporters are backing away from some of the ideas. My guess is that they're in "wait-and-see" mode as some in Washington, D.C. try to come up with some compromise.

If you haven't contacted Baucus and Tester yet to tell them to oppose card check, please send them an email today.

June 19, 2009

Unemployment Numbers Continue to Rise

Despite some people forecasting a potential turn around in the national economy by the end of the year, Americans and Montanans are still losing their jobs. In fact, eight states now have record unemployment levels, including California, Nevada, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Georgia. California's rate just hit 11.5%, which makes our 6.3% look pretty nice. Still, since our rate went up .3% over the last month, those Montana workers who now find themselves without work are now feeling the full effects of this economic downturn. In Montana, the hardest hit industries are those that are most vulnerable to national and worldwide trends - wood products, manufacturing, mining, etc...

June 17, 2009

The Old Switcheroo

SB 371 (Perry - Manhattan), the Chamber's common sense workers' compensation reform bill officially died last week when the deadline passed for overriding Governor's vetoes. It received enough bi-partisan support in both houses of the Legislature before the Governor shot it down twice, but not all 101 supporters stuck with us on the vote to override.

It's always puzzled me when a legislator votes one way and then switches his or her vote only because the Governor doesn't like the idea. I suppose new information may come to light, but on this bill the issues were well debated before it was sent to the Governor's desk. So all of a sudden this is not a good idea for your constituents just because the Governor doesn't sign it? Hmmmm....

I also think some people got confused about how they were voting. A "yes" vote was to vote to override. Perhaps some people thought a "yes" vote was to support the Governor's action. There were a number of people who actually didn't even cast their vote, and according to legislative rules those non-votes end up being votes to support the veto.

Here are the people who switched their votes or did not vote on SB 371: Senators Branae, Erickson, Hamlett, Esp, Gallus, Gillan, Hawks, Larsen, Laslovich, Ripley, Schmidt, Wanzenried, Windy Boy, Zinke, and Representatives Bennett, Furey, Glaser, Hamilton, Hawk, Hiner, Hoven, McChesney, Melhoff, More, Roberts, Stahl, Wagner.

June 10, 2009

Montana Supreme Court Hears Satterlee Case

This morning I attended the Montana Supreme Court oral arguments for a very important case called Satterlee v. Lumberman's Mutual. In Satterlee, the plaintiffs have asked the Court to throw out a statute that prohibits a person from receiving permanent total disability payments after a worker is eligible for retirement benefits, such as Social Security (MCA § 39-71-710).

Two years ago, the Workers’ Compensation Court ruled against the plaintiffs and upheld the law as passed by the legislature. If the case is decided in favor of the plaintiffs/appellants, the Old Fund, which was established to compensate injuries prior to 1990, could take a hit of up to $130 million, and the new State Fund could pay out $163 million, including retroactive payments to claimants whose benefits stopped when they turned 65.  These new costs would lead to increased premium costs for companies that currently pay into the system.

The Montana Chamber filed an amicus brief in this important case to stress how a ruling for Satterlee is not a ruling against insurers, it's a ruling against the people that pay for work comp premiums. We already have the 2nd highest work comp premiums in the country, and a bad decision in this case would undoubtedly send us straight up to #1. It doesn't make much sense to allow people to collect work comp when they are retired from the workforce. To read the amicus brief, click here.

The presentations by both parties were well prepared, but nothing earth-shattering. The arguments from both sides have been fairly well spelled out in the briefs. The plaintiffs main argument is that people who are under the age of 65 can collect permanent total disability (PTD) work comp benefits if they are totally disabled, but someone over 65 cannot. Therefore, they argue, it violates Montana's equal protection laws because similarly situated people are being treated differently solely because of age. The defense's rebuttal is that the work comp system was never intended to be a pension program, the cost to the system would be detrimental, and it would have severely negative economic consequences if decided in the plaintiff's favor.

The most interesting part of oral argument is the fact that individual justices can interrupt the presenting party to ask questions. In this case, all seven justices had at least one question. Justice Nelson had the most at five. Although it's not that scientific, it's often possible to gage an individual justice's initial take on a case just by the kind of question he or she asks. For example, Justice Morris asked a somewhat confrontational and pointed question of the defense/appellee side at the start of his presentation. I can't say for sure, but it seemed like Justice Morris was more sympathetic to the plaintiff's side.

Many of the other questions seemed like genuine attempts to sort through a legal theory or facts of the case, so I can't really say the case will go one way or another. You're better off renting a crystal ball or something. Additionally, I can't really say when we can expect a decision from the Court either. Could be two months, could be twelve months. It's now totally in their hands, so we will wait patiently and keep you updated.

June 09, 2009

Will Montana Go Blue in 2012?

If Obama can hold on to some of this big states he grabbed in the 2008 election, Montana is poised to become his biggest target to flip in 2012. Montana narrowly supported McCain, but it was the most competitive presidential contest our state had seen since the 1992 election. McCain ended up with 49.7% of the vote, while Obama was right behind with 47.2%.

47.2% for a Democratic candidate for president is good in Montana. Although we gave Clinton our electoral votes in 1992, he only won a plurality when Ross Perot took a good chunk away from George H. W. Bush. The last Democratic presidential candidate we gave a majority to was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So, Obama's plan to target Montana after just a narrow loss is probably a smart move.

It's pretty early to start talking about targeted states, however. Obama hasn't quite finished his first six months in office. Elections start earlier each cycle, but there are so many things that could happen before we get to 2012. First, and foremost, is what happens with the economy. If the economy doesn't show significant improvement after the large amounts spent on stimulus, this could be trouble for Obama in Montana. In addition, it's very likely that Obama will encounter a big new foreign policy problem, like North Korean aggression or problems with Iran. Perhaps "new" isn't the right word - maybe escalating. And as the article points out, he can't look to left when it comes to environmental issues and gun issues.

And don't forget we have one big thing before the next presidential election. It's called 2010!

June 05, 2009

What the Governor's Veto of SB 371 Means for Small Business

One thing is very clear after the Governor's veto of the common sense work comp reform contained in SB 371: that things are very unclear for small businesses when it comes to some important work comp issues.

SB 371 was one of the Chamber’s top priorities for the 61stLegislative Session. It would have clarified the law for work comp injuries by stating the injuries which occur on breaks off the work site or at an employer-sponsored recreational activity are not work-related. Two Supreme Court cases served as the icing on the cake for many employers fed up with a work comp system that allowed so many non-work related injuries in.

Employers have a lot of questions. Should they bar employees from leavingthe work site during breaks to do non-work related activities (pick up a kid from school, grab some food, go to an appointment)? Should they stop paying for breaks? Should they stop sponsoring recreational activities and parties to help with employee relations? Opponents of SB 371 actually said "yes" during different parts of the debate. Since employers cannot control safety in most of these situations, it is very unsettling for them that they may be slapped with a work comp claim if an employee is injured doing something that doesn't have anything to do with work.

SB 371 would have cleared these things up for employers ANDemployees. Because of the Governor's veto, Montana small businesses are left having to wonder. For now, it's wise to err on the side of assuming there is coverage in all of these situations. Small businesses will have to decided if providing paid breaks off the work site and sponsorship of recreational activities are worth the risks. If your business decides to pull the plug on these benefits (and I already know some who have since the veto), tell unhappy employees to call the Governor's office. He will have another change to sign a similar bill in 2011.